Full time

Argentina1–1Cape Verde Islands

Fri 3 Jul, 22:00 UTC

Our call

Win probabilityPredicted 2–1

Argentina: 50%
Draw: 50%
Cape Verde Islands: 0%

Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.

Published Fri 3 Jul, 14:45 UTC · locked Fri 3 Jul, 22:00 UTC · scored Sat 4 Jul, 04:52 UTC

Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.

What's driving this call

The model favours Argentina (50%) over Cape Verde Islands (0%), with a 50% chance of a draw. Recent form leans toward Argentina on the model's form comparison (75% vs 25%).

How the call landed

Missed call

Our call: Argentina (50%). It finished 1–1 — a draw.

Our prediction

2–1

Actual result

1–1

0.50

Brier score

0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.

0.69

Log loss

Punishes confident misses — lower is better.

How we score every call

Recent form

Argentina

Cape Verde Islands

Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.

The pre-match read

Too close to call — the model gives Argentina only a slight edge at 50%, 2–1 its predicted score.

Deeper read

xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read

Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.