World Cup chances
Every nation still in the tournament, sized by its chance of lifting the trophy. We re-simulate the remaining bracket daily from our in-house ratings, so the circles grow and shrink after every full-time — and the day-over-day story is printed, not implied.
Chance of winning the tournament, by nation
- Spain100%0.0
simulated 10,000 times · updated daily · snapshot 22 Aug 2026
The full picture
Semi-final, final and title chances for every surviving nation.
| Nation | Semis | Final | Wins it | Day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0.0 |
These are estimates from a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining bracket, built on our own simple in-house ratings and re-run daily — shown for context, with the trial count printed above. They are not the locked, scored match calls that make up the public record, and like everything here they are analysis, not betting advice.